Macroscope | Don’t be too discouraged by a slowing Chinese economy – a healthier, more sustainable one could in fact present more investment opportunities
Looking back at China’s 40 years of development since the grand open-up, three distinctive phrases, each marked by a major transitioning of growth models, stand out
Last year would have gone down in Chinese history as an important year for politics and the economy.
The successful completion of the 19th Party Congress for the Communist Party has further cemented President Xi Jinping’s political authority and ushered in a new generation of leaders who are ready to take China to the next stage of development.
On the macroeconomic front, a combination of revived exports, resilient consumption, and a surprisingly solid real-estate market has led the economy to post its first annual growth acceleration since 2010.
This decent cyclical backdrop has also emboldened Beijing to carry out some tangible reforms, particularly in deleveraging and environmental protection, kicking start a multi-year (if not decade) transformation towards quality-driven growth
This decent cyclical backdrop has also emboldened Beijing to carry out some tangible reforms, particularly in deleveraging and environmental protection, kicking start a multi-year (if not decade) transformation towards quality-driven growth.
With optimism in the air, economists have rushed to upgrade their forecasts for China’s gross domestic product (GDP) and even started a debate about whether China has started a brand new growth cycle.
The track record of economists predicting secular trends in an economy is not particularly encouraging. But knowing how important it is to have a longer-term view on China, we are forced to offer our two cents.
Looking back at China’s 40 years of development since the grand open-up, three distinctive phrases, each marked by a major transitioning of growth models, stand out.
