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Macroscope

Pedestrians walk past a sign showing the numbers of the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong on October 8, when a spectacular rally went into reverse. Photo: AFP

Macroscope | Why investors should be fearful when China bulls are greedy

While there are reasons for optimism with the news coming out of the Fed and Beijing, the case for caution is much stronger.

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Macroscope | Why ‘bazooka’ stimulus alone won’t fix what ails China’s economy

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Macroscope | Can central banks really prevent a repeat of the Great Depression?

Macroscope | Why Germany’s economic issues run just as deep as China’s

Beijing and Berlin need to restore confidence in their economies, but political and ideological resistance to rises in public spending runs deep.

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Shoppers browse at a street market in Alexanderplatz in Berlin on September 25. Germany’s business outlook has worsened again, reinforcing fears that Europe’s biggest economy is in recession with no quick rebound in sight. Photo: Bloomberg

Macroscope | West should thank China for kick-starting its economic growth

Instead of being grateful, the US and Europe are lashing out at China while simultaneously adopting aspects of Chinese state capitalism.

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Macroscope | Investors still revel in blissful ignorance of US political risks

Surging stock markets show investors pay no heed to the dangerous dysfunction in US politics, but ratings agencies are ahead of the curve.

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Macroscope | Bond boom a sign of reality catching up with bubbly stock markets

The recent skittishness of equities is undermining global investors’ confidence and driving them to seek safety in bonds.

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Visitors take photos in front of the Cloud Gate sculpture, known as the Bean, at Millennium Park in Chicago on August 15. The city of Chicago is delaying its US$643 million bond sale that was expected to price last week amid volatility in the US$4 trillion market for state and local bonds. Photo: Bloomberg

Macroscope | China’s economy isn’t becoming Japanified, at least not yet

Despite fears China has entered have entered a ‘balance sheet recession’, the country has more tools than Japan to reflate its economy.

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Macroscope | Gold is still the safe haven of choice in Asia and beyond

The gold price coming adrift from traditional anchors points to deep uncertainty about the world and concern for the global monetary system.

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Macroscope | 4 reasons it’s too early to declare victory over inflation

Central banks might have kept interest rates too high for too long. Cutting them too quickly could prove even more costly.

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A construction worker climbs to the second story of a house under construction in a new development in Brambleton, Virginia, on August 14. US consumer inflation eased slightly in July, according to US Labour Department data, its smallest 12-month increase since March 2021 and a positive sign for the Federal Reserve as it weighs cutting interest rates. Photo: AFP

Macroscope | Why risk of US recession, not China downturn, is real cause for concern

The Federal Reserve’s priority must be to ensure fears of a deeper downturn do not become self-fulfilling, especially given what the US election could unleash.

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A cyclist rides past a “Now Hiring” sign posted on a business storefront in San Gabriel, California, on August 21. US figures for the 12 months ending in March showed there were 818,000 fewer jobs than previously reported in the largest downward revision since 2009. Photo: AFP

US Fed chair says ‘the time has come’ to start cutting interest rates

The Fed’s benchmark lending rate currently sits at a 23-year high of between 5.25 and 5.50 per cent, cooling demand in the world’s largest economy ahead of November’s presidential elections.

Macroscope | Kamala Harris’ economic plan is bad – Trump would be worse

While her economic policies are not the answer, she would not damage US democracy, undermine Federal Reserve independence and sow chaos.

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Macroscope | Why World Bank action on looming jobs crisis points to a better way

At a time when some are intent on promoting division, maybe our only hope for progress is forward-looking institutions like the World Bank.

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People visit a job fair in in Shanghai on May 31. An estimated 1.2 billion young people in the Global South will become working-age adults in the next 10 years, yet there will not be nearly enough jobs for them without bold and urgent reforms. Photo: AFP

Macroscope | China’s overheated government bond market is the least of its worries

Concerns about the sovereign debt market shouldn’t be related to threats to financial stability but the risk of a more severe economic downturn.

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Unfinished residential buildings developed by China Evergrande Group in the outskirts of Shijiazhuang, Hebei province, on February 1. Persistent crises in the property sector and weak consumer demand are challenging China’s policymakers. Photo: Reuters

Macroscope | Japan’s stock shock signals the return of volatility – and fear

Markets are beginning to reflect and respond to a fast-growing sense of uncertainty and insecurity in the wider world.

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Macroscope | Never mind Japan – US is biggest source of global market volatility

The US is not the only source of volatility in the global economy, but the size of its economy and capital markets make it the most worrying.

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Macroscope | The great stock market reset is on its way

The coming stock shakeout will force the realisation that savings are being directed into areas of fleeting gain rather than at real need.

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Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on January 29. Markets are swinging but the unmistakable trend is downwards. Photo: Reuters

Macroscope | Second Trump presidency would pose little threat to King Dollar

While Donald Trump returning as president poses political risks, the US dollar is more insulated against his policies than many might think.

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Macroscope | China’s uneven recovery risks more US protectionism, even if Trump loses

China’s trade surplus and deflationary policies propping up its push for hi-tech manufacturing mean a sharp US response is likely, whoever wins the November election.

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Macroscope | Why do investors refuse to take threat of second Trump term seriously?

While investors appear sure of a Trump victory, they have yet to come to terms with the far-reaching consequences of Trump’s re-election.

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Republican presidential candidate and former US president Donald Trump departs on the third day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on July 17. Photo: AFP

Macroscope | Political chaos in the West could force the rest to seek new leadership

Recent UK and French election results and US turmoil are creating an impression of political and societal instability.

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Demonstrators rally against the far-right after France announced first-round election results, at Place de la Republique in Paris on June 30. The election has left France politically divided. Photo: AFP

Macroscope | Has Starmer’s Britain become a safe haven? Think again

The political chaos and the sway of populist politicians in the US and France are no reason to overlook the many problems facing Britain.

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Macroscope | Why Asian property’s strong rental growth is a double-edged sword

Rental growth is a cause for concern in Asia’s residential property market, but it is also a key driver of returns in the commercial sector.

Macroscope | What will give when US’ soaring debt runs up against its inflation fight?

Doubts about the US government’s ability to manage its debt without stoking inflation are sparking the latest round of dire warnings about the risks to the global economy.

A billboard showing the debt limit is seen in Washington, DC on April 17 last year. If, as some scholars say, the US government can always finance its budget deficit, it must still ensure its fiscal and monetary policies serve its objectives. Photo: AFP

Macroscope | Asia investors must cherry-pick best sectors, not chase narratives

Rather than hugging a broad index or betting on a certain country, investors must be discerning and focus on themes and trends in each country.

An employee works at a textile factory in Nantong, in eastern Jiangsu province, on June 25. Sentiment towards China’s economy has improved this year amid signs of economic stabilisation and more forceful stimulus measures. Photo: AFP

Macroscope | A fractious world is making much-needed IMF reforms harder

Great reforms seem to be born only out of major upheavals. And the IMF enjoys only as much power as its fractious owners are prepared to give it.

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Macroscope | Why China must choose stealth yuan depreciation and avoid mistakes of 2015

The yuan is under strain from internal and external pressures, making the balancing act that China’s monetary policymakers are trying to manage even trickier.

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Macroscope
Daily insight on the hottest topics in the global economy, central bank policymaking and international trade flows, putting developments in their perspective for a China-oriented audience.
last updated:
9 September, 2024
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