Coming India state polls may decide BJP’s future after surprise win in Haryana

Losses in the coming Maharashtra and Jharkhand elections could challenge Narendra Modi’s leadership and the stability of his coalition

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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi speaks during celebrations following the election results of northern state of Haryana, at Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) headquarters in New Delhi, India, on October 8. Photo: AP

Published: 6:30pm, 18 Oct 2024Updated: 9:36pm, 18 Oct 2024

An unexpected victory in Haryana has given Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) a temporary lift, but analysts say the coming state elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand could significantly challenge his leadership and the stability of the federal government.

The election regulator announced this week that polls will be held in the eastern state of Jharkhand on November 13 and in the western state of Maharashtra on November 20. The results of the elections are likely to set the tone for the state elections in Delhi and Bihar next year.

Those polls could prove pivotal, as Modi’s government is heavily reliant on regional allies after losing its outright majority in parliamentary elections this year.

Analysts say defeats in those states could intensify internal scrutiny of Modi’s leadership and prompt his allies to reconsider their support. They also note that the ruling party already lost ground in Maharashtra, a politically important state, during the parliamentary elections.

“I think the dice is loaded against the BJP alliance in Maharashtra because they performed poorly in the parliamentary elections. Generally, Modi’s draw is greater in parliamentary elections than state elections where local issues dominate,” said Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, an independent political commentator, adding that the loss could deepen in the state polls.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, left, waves as he arrives to celebrate the election results of northern state of Haryana at BJP headquarters in New Delhi on October 8. Photo: AP

Maharashtra has been caught in a political churn following a split in the ranks of two major regional parties, Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress party, over the last few years.