India and Pakistan fuel Central Asian arms race with military sales to Armenia, Azerbaijan

The influx of military hardware is shifting the military balance in the region, potentially undermining fragile peace efforts

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A Pakistani JF-17 Thunder wraplane performs a fly-by in 2018. Photo: AFP

Published: 4:00pm, 12 Oct 2024

A flurry of arms deliveries by South Asian rivals Pakistan and India to the warring Central Asian nations of Azerbaijan and Armenia is accelerating an arms race in the Caucasus, just a year after Baku’s forces seized back the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region in a lightning assault.

Despite post-war negotiations aimed at permanently ending three decades of hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan, analysts fear that the influx of Pakistani warplanes and Indian air defence systems – alongside contributions from France – could herald a new wave of conflict.

While a limited peace agreement between the governments in Yerevan and Baku “is still likely, unresolved territorial and political disputes maintain a high risk of unilateral Azeri military actions”, said Tinatin Japaridze, a Eurasia analyst at the New York-based Eurasia Group political risk consultancy.

Any peace deal lacking clarity on border issues would “do little to deter” Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev from escalating military actions, she said, citing the potential forced opening of the Zangezur corridor through Armenia’s Syunik region that would grant Azerbaijan vital access to its Nakhchivan exclave.

This would also enhance connectivity between East Asia and the Black Sea via the Middle Corridor, a project spearheaded by Kazakhstan.

Last month, Beijing formally joined the Middle Corridor project, committing to develop multimodal connectivity through its state-owned China Railway Container Transport Corporation.