India’s BJP defies predictions with Haryana win, boosting prospects ahead of key polls

An unexpected victory in the northern state has put Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party on surer electoral footing, analysts say

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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) headquarters as the party celebrates its win in the Haryana state assembly elections on October 8. Photo: Reuters

Published: 4:59pm, 9 Oct 2024Updated: 5:04pm, 9 Oct 2024

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has defied expectations with a surprise win in Haryana’s recent state elections, giving a crucial boost to its waning fortunes ahead of key polls, analysts say, despite facing setbacks in Indian-administered Kashmir.

Electoral surveys had unanimously predicted a resounding defeat for the BJP in Haryana, with India’s main opposition Congress Party expected to trounce the ruling party in the northern state. Against all forecasts, the BJP secured a third consecutive term by winning 48 seats – its biggest win ever in the state – compared to the Congress party’s 37 seats, based on official results released on Tuesday.

The unexpected victory comes at a crucial time for Modi’s BJP, which lost its outright majority in parliamentary polls earlier this year. Analysts say the win is likely to invigorate the party as it heads into a series of crucial state elections, including in the strategically important western state of Maharashtra and the eastern state of Jharkhand before the end of the year. Elections are also due to be held in Delhi and Bihar next year.

“The results in Haryana mean that the BJP has got oxygen. If they had lost the mandate in Haryana, then going into Maharashtra would have been difficult for them. Now, Maharashtra is wide open,” said Yashwant Deshmukh, an independent political commentator.

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) supporters carry a cut-out of Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the party’s headquarters as they gather to celebrate the BJP’s win in the Haryana state assembly elections in New Delhi on October 8. Photo: Reuters

Once a stronghold for the BJP and its regional ally Shiv Sena, Maharashtra’s political landscape has become challenging following splits within Shiv Sena and another influential regional party, the Nationalist Congress Party, in recent years.