South China Sea: Manila says it has a plan if Beijing seizes Sabina Shoal. What is it?

Taking up an offer from the US to escort its resupply missions is one of the Philippines’ potential ‘contingency plans’, analysts say

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A China Coast Guard ship is seen from the Philippine Coast Guard vessel BRP Cabra during a supply mission to Sabina Shoal on August 26. Photo: AFP

Published: 5:00pm, 18 Sep 2024Updated: 7:55pm, 18 Sep 2024

The Philippines is weighing several options to respond should Beijing attempt to take control of Sabina Shoal in the South China Sea, analysts say, including reconsidering a US offer to escort its resupply missions.

Their comments came in response to the Philippine Navy declaring it has plans to respond to a potential takeover attempt of the shoal, which has been the site of two collisions between Philippine and Chinese vessels in recent months.

In a press briefing on Tuesday, navy spokesman Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad told reporters, “I would not like to speculate on the possible security impact of China taking control of the Sabina Shoal. Nevertheless, we are prepared and we have our contingency plans.”

His statement came shortly after the Philippines recalled the BRP Teresa Magbanua from Sabina Shoal over the weekend, citing bad weather, depleted supplies and the need to evacuate personnel requiring medical care.

The coastguard ship had been deployed at the shoal – located 146km from Palawan and around 1,200km from mainland China – for five months in order to deter Beijing from pursuing land reclamation and island-building activities in the area.

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Trinidad noted that 65 Chinese vessels had been observed swarming around Sabina Shoal even before the BRP Teresa Magbanua had been recalled, while 157 Chinese vessels in total had been monitored in the West Philippine Sea – Manila’s term for the portion of the South China Sea that lies within its exclusive economic zone – from September 10 to 16.