China pushes to secure Myanmar military a seat at the table as junta falters

Concerned by a potential power vacuum, Beijing is hoping to shape Myanmar’s trajectory as the generals’ grip weakens

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Myanmar’s junta chief Min Aung Hlaing (right) meets China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Naypyidaw on August 14. Photo: Myanmar Military Information Team/AFP

Published: 3:30pm, 24 Aug 2024Updated: 3:35pm, 24 Aug 2024

As Myanmar’s military junta teeters on the brink of collapse, China is making a bold power play – nudging the war-torn nation towards elections in a bid, experts say, to install a predictable government that will protect Beijing’s interests.

The calculus is clear: with the junta haemorrhaging territory to a tenacious insurgency, China wants to ensure the military retains a seat at the table, no matter the outcome.

“They cannot win and indeed are losing at a rate they can never recover from,” said Zachary Abuza, a Southeast Asia expert and professor at the National War College in Washington, referring to Myanmar’s generals. “Beijing wants to ensure that the military still has a seat at the table.”

During a visit to Thailand this month, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Beijing would support a democratic transition in Myanmar and would help “restore peace and stability” – a tacit acknowledgement that the junta’s grip on power is slipping.

Earlier, he met with the generals in Naypyidaw. Myanmar’s state media announced afterwards that China had promised technical support and aid for a census ahead of elections the military has vowed to hold next year.

Destroyed and damaged buildings are seen on August 10 in Lashio, Myanmar’s northern Shan State, following fighting between the military and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army. Photo: AFP

Yet Beijing’s gambit faces long odds. Ethnic armed groups and the National Unity Government (NUG), a coalition of exiled lawmakers established in the wake of the 2021 coup, are intent on the military’s “total defeat”, Abuza said – making them unlikely to participate in any junta-backed polls. And the military itself may balk at relinquishing control, despite its battlefield setbacks.