China-Philippines ties on ‘brink of total breakdown’: unpacking the collapse

Their churning South China Sea quarrel has now reached ‘boiling point’ – and Filipinos are demanding action

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An Filipino protester holds a sign during an anti-China rally outside China’s consular office in Makati City, Philippines, last month. Photo: EPA-EFE

Published: 9:30am, 29 Jun 2024Updated: 8:44am, 3 Jul 2024

Concrete pillars once dotted the landscape of Malolos, north of Manila, in the grand first phase of a billion-peso Chinese-backed rail project meant to transform transport in the Philippines. That was in 2008: a time of promise and partnership with Beijing.

Fast forward 16 years and those 80 support pillars are now gone, torn down after the ambitious Northrail scheme was abandoned amid allegations of corruption and mismanagement. Yet 200km to the northwest, a new structure is taking shape – one with very different intentions.

Inside a Philippine naval base on the western shores of Luzon, workers are quietly erecting the country’s first supersonic cruise missile outpost. With a 300km range, the BrahMos missiles will be capable of striking Scarborough Shoal, where Chinese naval forces have gathered. This burgeoning military installation represents the latest flashpoint in the Philippines’ increasingly acrimonious stand-off with its one-time partner.

What began as a story of infrastructure cooperation has morphed into an epic tale of betrayal and confrontation, the once-chummy relationship between Manila and Beijing giving way to escalating geopolitical rivalry. The rise and fall of those Northrail pillars now bookend a new, more ominous chapter.

At the heart of the falling out is Beijing’s assertion, through its “nine-dash-line” – lately expanded to 10-dashes – that it owns nearly all of the South China Sea. Its expansive maritime claim has led China to encroach on waters over which the Philippines also claims sovereignty.

“I think relations are the worst in recent memory because the hostility and aggression of China at both the strategic and tactical levels are palpable,” former senator and retired naval officer Antonio Trilllanes told This Week in Asia.