Looking to 2020 for India, Indonesia, the Koreas and US-China tensions: the expert view

Unrest in Hong Kong, tussles between Washington and Beijing over tech and trade, a surge in Hindu nationalism – after the conflict and volatility that marked 2019, Shashi Tharoor and three other commentators offer predictions for trends likely to impact Asia in the year ahead

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SCMP’s Asia desk

Published: 11:00am, 28 Dec 2019Updated: 11:00am, 28 Dec 2019

This is the first in a two-part series, with the second part coming on December 29

SHASHI THAROOR

Current Indian MP and former United Nations communications head

At the regional level we have the coming into force of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, or RCEP, from which India abstained – reflecting its fears (of China) rather than aspirations (of its entrepreneurial young). India’s absence will mean that both the pact and the country will miss a transformative opportunity.

Those fears seem less in evidence, however, in the political relationship between India and China – which, despite the significant strategic challenges posed by Beijing, seem to be on a reasonably even keel after the Xi Jinping-Narendra Modi summit in India in late 2019. I expect the two leaders to maintain the pattern of regular interactions in 2020. There may be no great congruence of views, but they will be able to contain potential diplomatic hostilities by staying engaged with each other.

India will look with interest at how the situation between Beijing and Hong Kong evolves. Will “one country, two systems” work, permitting a lively democracy to flourish in the former colony? Will Hong Kong’s rebelliousness ignite similar revolts elsewhere in China? Or will China crack down definitively and impose authoritarian control, undermining its own soft power around the world?