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China’s 20th Party Congress
This Week in AsiaOpinion
Wang Xiangwei
Wang Xiangwei

China Briefing | China’s 20th Party Congress: secrecy shrouds leadership selection process, but history offers hints

  • Recent history suggests face-to-face meetings will decide China’s next leadership line-up, which could be finalised by the end of this month
  • And there are rumours that Xi Jinping may make a major shake-up, now that the straw polls toyed with by his predecessors are firmly in the past

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Chinese President Xi Jinping claps while addressing the media as he introduced new members of the Politburo Standing Committee on the final day of the 19th party congress at Beijing’s Great Hall of the People in 2017. Photo: AP
Wang Xiangwei
China’s Communist Party this week finally revealed the date of its long-anticipated 20th congress, where Xi Jinping is widely expected to secure a norm-busting third term and cement his status as the country’s most powerful leader in decades.
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Tuesday’s announcement marked the official start of the countdown to the twice-a-decade conclave from October 16, at which Xi expects to promote more allies to senior leadership positions and deliver a policy address outlining China’s priorities for the next five years or more.

Though few details about the coming congress were offered in state media reports, the declaration of a solid start date is sure to be followed by two major, interconnected developments.

Xi Jinping and other leaders wave at assembled ‘model civil servants’ in Beijing for an awards ceremony last month. Photo: Xinhua
Xi Jinping and other leaders wave at assembled ‘model civil servants’ in Beijing for an awards ceremony last month. Photo: Xinhua
First, China’s massive propaganda machine will be thrown into overdrive, rhapsodising – even more than it already has been -about the country’s many achievements in the past decade under Xi’s reign. Scant mention will be made of the country’s economic challenges made worse by its zero-Covid policy and regulatory crackdowns, nor an increasingly hostile international environment that’s characterised by its tensions with the United States. Such subjects are mostly mentioned currently to expound the argument that China needs a visionary leader – Xi – to lead the country forward at a time of great uncertainty both at home and abroad.

Second, speculation over China’s new leadership line-up will intensify. While there is little doubt that Xi is poised to win five more years as paramount leader, extending a tenure that began in late 2012, there is still uncertainty about how much influence he will wield over the formation of a new power structure. A significant indicator of his sway and the country’s broad policy direction will be whether he dominates the new line-up with allies, or has to compromise with other factions.

‘Seven up, eight down’ likely to force retirements

Xi, 69, is widely expected to be exempt from the party’s informal “seven up, eight down” rule that ordinarily requires senior officials who are 68 or older to step down.

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