Opinion | Will Leni Robredo and Sara Duterte-Carpio win the 2022 Philippine elections?

The Philippines has a long history of voters embracing personalities over political parties, but even the most seasoned of Filipino poll watchers have been perplexed by the drama that unfolded in Manila in recent weeks.

Since President Rodrigo Duterte rose to power in 2016 by way of a substitution – which are allowed under the Philippine’s election laws if the original candidate dies, withdraws or is disqualified – many had expected his daughter, Sara Duterte-Carpio, to follow a similar route to the country’s top political post.

But the first woman mayor of Davao, who had been leading in opinion polls ahead of next year’s presidential elections, stunned observers last month when she instead announced she would run as the vice-presidential candidate for the Lakas-Christian Muslim Democrats – the party of the Philippines’ first woman vice-president, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo – after resigning from the regional party she founded, Hugpong ng Pagbabago.

Duterte himself said afterwards that he was “puzzled” by his daughter’s decision, telling a radio host that he was “sure” the decision came from the camp of dictator’s son, and presidential hopeful, Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jnr.

For a time, it seemed like father and daughter would vie for the same post – the president and vice-president are elected separately in the Philippines – as the elder Duterte, who is barred by the constitution from seeking a second term as president, had in August expressed his desire to run for the No 2 job instead.

Critics claimed this would make a mockery of democracy and accused the outgoing president of attempting to evade justice over his failed war on drugs, which is under investigation by the International Criminal Court. On Monday, the elder Duterte ruled out the possibility of a father-daughter battle for the vice-presidency when he instead filed his candidacy for a senate seat in next year’s polls.

Pederalismo ng Dugong Dakilang Samahan, a party founded to support Duterte’s policies, is expected to throw its weight behind his daughter’s bid for the vice-presidency – especially after his chosen successor, Christopher Go, on Tuesday quit the presidential race, having earlier withdrawn his candidacy to run for vice-president.