Advertisement
Taiwan
This Week in AsiaOpinion
Cary Huang
Cary Huang

Sino File | Taiwan election: Hong Kong won it, Beijing lost it

  • Beijing’s pressure on Taipei gave the Democratic Progressive Party a boost in the polls, on its way to a landslide victory over the Kuomintang
  • The vote also reflects the people’s views on the relationships between Washington, Beijing and Taipei under the presidencies of Trump, Xi and Tsai

Reading Time:5 minutes
Why you can trust SCMP
A man wears a headband showing a drawing of Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen during an election campaign. Photo: EPA
Cary Huang
When it comes to crucial elections for the highest office, there is no place in the world where outside factors take precedence over local issues – other than in Taiwan.
Advertisement
Mainland China’s increasingly hawkish attitude towards the island, Hong Kong’s anti-Beijing protests, and Washington’s support of the democratic aspirations in those two Chinese communities have all contributed to Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and her ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) landslide victory in the just-concluded presidential and legislative elections.
In the self-ruled island’s presidential race on January 11, Tsai won a record 8.2 million votes, or 57 per cent of the total, against 5.5 million votes (38 per cent) for her main opponent, Han Kuo-yu from the Kuomintang (KMT). It is a result few expected just a year ago, when various opinion polls suggested Han had a lead over Tsai with a margin of more than 30 percentage points. The DPP also won a comfortable majority of 61 seats against the KMT’s 38 in the 113-member parliament or Legislative Yuan.

In the past six presidential elections, voters have gone back and forth between the independence-leaning green camp led by the DPP and the Beijing-friendly blue camp led by KMT.

Tsai and the DPP suffered a crushing defeat in the November 2018 local elections, largely due to a flagging economy and unpopular domestic policies, while Han won a resounding victory in Kaohsiung, a DPP stronghold, largely on a platform of economic improvement. Han promised to maintain closer ties with Beijing to bring in more capital, tourists and other economic benefits. Tsai used her political capital on pension and labour reforms, and spearheading a socially progressive agenda to pass a controversial law legalising same-sex marriage.

President Tsai Ing-wen celebrates winning the January 11 presidential election. Photo: EPA
President Tsai Ing-wen celebrates winning the January 11 presidential election. Photo: EPA
Advertisement

In practice, the midterm local elections often set the tone for the presidential and legislative elections. In 2018, pundits saw little chance of Tsai winning a second term, as her popularity rating fell to a low of 24.3 per cent.

Advertisement