Explainer | Srettha’s exit: are Thailand’s conservatives on the rise, democracy in retreat?

Despite challenges from other parties, Pheu Thai ‘will almost certainly remain in government’, an analyst says

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A newspaper featuring a photograph of Thailand’s former prime minister Srettha Thavisin, at a news stand in Bangkok. Photo: Bloomberg

Published: 3:06pm, 15 Aug 2024

As Thailand digests the downfall of another prime minister and the wreckage of another government – after yet another court ruling – here is a look at what may come next in a kingdom locked in a perpetual political crisis:

Shinawatras still strong?

Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin’s dismissal at the hands of the Constitutional Court on Wednesday was as unexpected as it was brutal, with the lead judge describing him as lacking ethics. The 5-4 ruling put a nail in the coffin of his administration which had endured 11 months of reshuffles and infighting within a coalition which seems at odds with itself despite public shows of unity.

Pheu Thai, the largest party in that coalition, now has a choice between 75-year-old former justice minister Chaikasem Nitisiri and the untested Paetongtarn Shinawatra, 37, the daughter of party patriarch Thaksin Shinawatra.

Chaikasem appears to be the front-runner for a vote due on Friday in parliament for a new prime minister.

Rumours on Thursday afternoon mounted that party leader Paetongtarn may instead be forwarded for the vote, raising the potential of a third Shinawatra direct family member to hold the post.

If Chaikasem succeeds, he will become Thailand’s oldest ever prime minister. Despite a recent history of ill health, he is seen as a safe steward of Thaksin’s interests.

Thai candidate for prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra speaks during an election rally for Thailand’s main opposition Pheu Thai party in Nonthaburi, north of Bangkok, on April 5, 2023. Photo: AFP

Thaksin, the divisive billionaire and influential two-time ex-prime minister, is hogging the headlines once again. He returned to Thailand almost a year ago after a jail sentence for corruption which prodded him into 15 years in self-exile and was pardoned by Thailand’s powerful king. That signalled an apparent deal with the conservatives who once saw his electoral magnetism as the gravest threat to their ascendancy.