Kate Logan

Opinion | Podesta’s China trip a chance for Biden to seal his climate legacy

For true leadership from the world’s two largest greenhouse gas emitters to be possible, the current bilateral dynamics need a reset

Reading Time:3 minutes

Why you can trust SCMP

US President Joe Biden arrives to speak on his administration’s climate change initiative, at the White House in Washington on November 14, 2023. Photo: Reuters

Kate Logan

Published: 8:30pm, 1 Sep 2024

John Podesta, the top US climate diplomat, is heading to China. It is no coincidence that Podesta may be the last high-level US official to set foot in Beijing before the presidential election and that his predecessor, John Kerry, was the first dignitary to visit China in 2021 after Joe Biden took office.

In fact, this reflects the important role climate has played in tempering bilateral ties. However, as the 2022 suspension of talks showed, this current model of engagement also has its limits and could be tested again after the US election.

Yet, the envoy’s visit could position the Biden administration to cap off its climate legacy with China by allowing for a reset of the relationship on a stronger footing come November, if the Democrats are elected.

This will require tapping into China’s desire to stabilise bilateral relations as the US transitions to a new administration and working with Beijing to take advantage of a confluence of events later this year, especially a potential meeting between Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

At a basic level, Podesta’s visit is an opportunity to sustain discussions with his counterparts on key US-China working group topics, including accelerating the energy transition away from coal and strengthening the regulation of potent, non-carbon gases such as methane.

Podesta is likely to share US expectations for China’s updated climate targets, which are due by early 2025. According to our modelling at the Asia Society Policy Institute, by 2035, China needs to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 30 per cent from an imminent peak to align with the Paris Agreement’s goal to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius – which Beijing said it would do in last year’s Sunnylands Statement.