James David Spellman

Opinion | Europe’s rightward lurch offers China a mixed bag

While a more conservative European Parliament will be less welcoming to China, bilateral trade deals with EU members could flow more freely

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People protest against the French right-wing party National Rally following the results of the European elections, in Paris, France, on June 10. The party made significant gains in the European Union parliamentary elections. Photo: EPA-EFE

James David Spellman

Published: 8:30pm, 11 Jun 2024

Europe could be turning to the right, according to evidence from European Parliament elections held over the weekend to determine which political forces will guide the European Union over the next five years.

Beijing can expect tougher times in Brussels. At the same time, it should see more opportunities for bilateral deals with European Union member states rather than the pan-EU responses to trade, security and economic conflicts that have dogged China-EU relations in recent years.

Provisional results at the time of writing indicate that the centrist European People’s Party had secured 186 seats, up 1o from 2019, thereby controlling about one-quarter of the parliament. The left-leaning Socialists and Democrats were at 135, a roughly 19 per cent share. The Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) had added four seats to reach 73.

Renew Europe, a pro-European liberal party, and the Greens appear to have suffered the heaviest losses. Renew had lost 23 seats according to the provisional results, falling from 102 to 79, with the Greens losing 18 seats to hold 53.

The centre-left will still prevail if its coalition holds firm, as it has since direct elections for the European Parliament began in 1979. However, the right and far-right now control 131 seats between the ECR and the Identity and Democracy parties.

They are likely to be joined by 15 lawmakers from Alternative for Germany, 11 from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party, six from Poland’s Confederation party and three from Bulgaria’s pro-Kremlin Revival party. This bloc would be the second-largest force in the parliament if they stick together despite their many fissures and rivalries.