Zhou Bo

Opinion | Who can the US really count on in a war with China over Taiwan?

That Washington can rely on its allies in case of military conflict over Taiwan is a best-case scenario – and, more likely, wishful thinking

For Washington, the biggest strategic ambiguity is whether a stronger China will become more confident about peaceful reunification or more impatient and resort to force

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Guards lower Taiwan’s flag in Liberty Square in Taipei on January 16. Photo: EPA-EFE

Zhou Bo

Published: 5:30am, 28 Apr 2024

In the worst-case scenario of a China-US showdown over Taiwan, will America’s allies stand with it back to back? My answer is: not necessarily. America has over 60 allies and partners around the globe. But when it comes to a war with China, those helpful to the US won’t be more than a handful.

Take Thailand for example. Since King Rama IV (1851-1868), Thailand’s foreign policy has been one of “bending with the wind”. This “bamboo diplomacy” allowed Siam to be the only Southeast Asian country to escape colonisation.

Today, the Beijing-Bangkok relationship is described by both as being “as close as one family”. In the past few years, China has surpassed the United States as the primary supplier of Thai military equipment such as tanks and an amphibious dock ship.

It’s similar with South Korea. Deeply worried about a nuclearised North Korea, Seoul cannot afford to show hostility towards Beijing, which has a latent treaty obligation of military help for North Korea.

The best example is that Yoon Suk-yeol, a seemingly diehard pro-American president, decided not to meet the visiting then-US House speaker Nancy Pelosi after her Taiwan visit in 2022, which triggered live-firing by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) around the island. It speaks volumes about Seoul’s tiptoeing between China and the US.

Japan has treaty obligations to provide logistical support to the American military in a conflict. It might let the US use its bases too, but its participation is unlikely. Public opinion in Japan is generally against getting ensnared in a Taiwan Strait conflict. According to a poll for the Asahi Shimbun last year, just 11 per cent of Japanese respondents said their armed forces should join the US in the fighting, and 27 per cent said their forces should not work with the US military at all.