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Climate change
OpinionAsia Opinion
Kavitha Yarlagadda
Kavitha Yarlagadda

Opinion | China’s and India’s coal habits are slowing down the green transition

  • In the short run, China and India are showing no real intention of cutting coal dependence
  • Instead, both are building or proposing new coal-fired capacity, never mind their climate pledges

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A worker walks past cranes at a coal-fired power plant under construction in Yulin, Shaanxi province in 2023. Photo: Reuters
Kavitha Yarlagadda

Given the likelihood of an extended heatwave this summer, the Indian government has ordered all gas-based power stations to be operational from May 1 to June 30. Power demand reached a record 243 gigawatts last September, and is forecast to hit 260GW this summer.

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India signed the Cop28 accord that calls for “transitioning away” from fossil fuels, but the country’s data on coal dependence indicates that this change is still far off.

India has about 27GW of coal-based power capacity under construction, and does not plan to close down any coal power plant until 2030. India is the world’s second largest coal producer, after China.

India’s 2023 National Electricity Plan estimates that the nation will need 866.4 million tonnes of domestic coal in 2026–2027, and that this amount will increase to 1.025 billion tonnes by 2031–2032. Meanwhile, Indian coal production is predicted to increase by 6 to 7 per cent yearly and reach about 1.5 billion tonnes in 2029-30.

Over in China, 70.45GW of coal-fired power plants were decommissioned in the last 10 years. More renewable energy is being developed than in any other nation. However, the licensing of new coal-fired plants in recent years casts doubt on China’s promise to phase out fossil fuels, and coal’s role in the nation’s energy security plans illustrates the challenging issue faced by international leaders.
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China’s state planner, concerned about power shortages, established a capacity price scheme that compensates generators for keeping coal plants running, regardless of whether they are used, starting in January this year. Despite analyst estimates that China’s coal usage could peak as soon as this year, Beijing has been hesitant about setting a more ambitious target: it says it will phase down coal between 2026 and 2030.
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