Lower risks, harder to respond: why Beijing may prefer a blockade to armed conflict on Taiwan
- PLA says military exercise is focused on naval and air combat readiness, seizing battlefield control, strike precision and patrols
- Drill was planned before William Lai’s inauguration and calibrated to ‘signal displeasure, but hopefully not escalate’, says analyst
The PLA’s Eastern Theatre Command announced on Thursday it would conduct a joint drill between its army, navy, air force and rocket forces, with a focus on naval and air combat readiness patrols, seizing battlefield control and precise strikes of crucial targets, as well as warship and aircraft patrols near the island.
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The command said the drill – taking place to the west, north and east of the main island of Taiwan and its outlying islands – aimed to “test the joint combat and real combat capabilities of the theatre forces”.
Analysts said while the possibility of war across the Taiwan Strait remained low, the drill represented China’s focus on blockading the island instead of entering a direct confrontation and considered it would cost Beijing relatively little and cause less damage on the island.
Lu Li-shih, a former instructor at the Taiwanese naval academy in Kaohsiung, said the location of the PLA drills – all in areas currently under Taipei’s control – suggested that the exercise was aimed at blockading the island instead of submitting it to a full-scale attack.
