Australian Aukus subs: are China’s fears of a nuclear arms race in the Indo-Pacific founded?

Australia would be the only non-nuclear state with highly enriched uranium-powered submarines, something China fears will undermine regional stability

The fuel used to power the submarines could be used to build nuclear weapons — so how it is handled will be key to gauging the allies’ intentions

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“A unique set of safeguards” will regulate how highly enriched uranium is used by Australia, according to a US White House official. Photo: US Navy via AP

Published: 9:00am, 27 Sep 2021Updated: 12:24pm, 28 Sep 2021

China has said the United States’ decision to help Australia acquire nuclear-powered submarines increased the risk of nuclear proliferation in the Indo-Pacific, but international experts say the extent of the risk depends on how the submarines are regulated.

The trilateral Aukus pact will allow Australia to build nuclear-powered submarines using US technology, a prospect that Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said “will gravely undermine regional peace and stability, aggravate an arms race and impair international nuclear non-proliferation efforts”.

However, its potential to serve as a gateway for nuclear weapons depends on how the nuclear technology is transferred from the US to Australia, according to Milton Leitenberg, a senior researcher at the University of Maryland’s Centre for International and Security Studies.

The fuel used to power the subs’ reactors could also be used to develop nuclear arms — a loophole in the International Non-Proliferation Treaty that other countries are suspected of exploiting in the past — although Leitenberg said he did not think the Australian government was trying to do so.

“Everything would depend on whether there is a provision in the agreement for the US to get back the spent reactor fuel after it has been irradiated and is no longer useful to power the submarine,” said Leitenberg, who has researched arms control for over 50 years.