Can China fill the gap as next US president tackles loss of influence in Middle East?

Analysts say both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will have to come to terms with Beijing seeking a greater role as Washington loses sway

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Published: 5:00am, 17 Oct 2024Updated: 10:28am, 17 Oct 2024

The presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris comes at a time of rising geopolitical tensions on multiple fronts. In the third of an in-depth series, Zhao Ziwen looks at how the election will affect Middle East policy and China-US rivalry in the region.

The widening conflict in the Middle East is one of the main issues dominating the current US debate about foreign policy, with the decision to send troops and advanced missile defences to Israel prompting Iran to warn that Washington is putting its own troops’ lives at risk.

It may even have a direct impact on the result of the presidential election with anger at the White House’s pro-Israel stance threatening Vice-President Kamala Harris’s prospects of taking Michigan, a key swing state that has a significant proportion of Arab-American voters.

But many observers believe that no matter what the result, the next president will face the stark truth that US influence in the region will be increasingly limited and it will feel an increasing need to focus more resources on the Asia-Pacific and its growing rivalry with China.

However, Beijing’s growing role in the Middle East could also turn the region into another battleground in the US-China rivalry, potentially reshaping the contours of Washington’s foreign policy, according to experts.

Analysts say US presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris face similar constraints when it comes to their Middle East policy. Photo: AP

John Calabrese, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, noted that the policy differences between a Donald Trump administration and a Harris administration might be smaller than many expect. He said that both would be constrained by the same reality: the narrowing scope of US influence in the region.

SCMP Series

US elections 2024: the China factor

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