China probably won’t join trade deal that has replaced TPP, says former US negotiator

Former US trade negotiator Wendy Cutler said China’s entry into a Pacific Rim trade pact was unlikely despite its expressions of interest because it would require economic reforms that Beijing is not prepared to make.

Cutler, who spoke on Wednesday in the annual China conference, organised by the South China Morning Post and held virtually this year, was the US Trade Representative Office’s chief negotiator for the pact reached under president Barack Obama.

She said she remained sceptical about Beijing joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) even after President Xi Jinping said last month that he would consider making China a member.

“When I heard Xi Jinping‘s comments about positively considering joining the CPTPP, part of me was a bit sceptical, and I see a real divorce between China’s statement and the changes that need to be done on the ground to really join CPTPP,” said Cutler, who is now managing director of the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Washington office.

“China would have to make some big structural reforms and go in a completely different direction than their economy is headed,” she said. “So whether we’re talking about the free flow of data, open labour practices and disciplining state-owned enterprises, these are all areas that China would need to grapple with.”

President Donald Trump pulled the US out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on his second day in office, before the US Congress could vote on joining the pact, which became the CPTPP when the remaining 11 TPP countries – including Canada, Japan and a number of Southeast Asian nations – continued negotiating membership terms. The agreement was brought fully into force last year.