Donald Trump’s planned China tariffs would hurt US economy and job growth: study

America’s real GDP could plummet by nearly 10 per cent in one scenario, analysis finds, with some impact expected to be felt through 2040

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A customer gets served at a hardware store in San Francisco, California. Voters’ inflationary concerns are widely anticipated to play a role in determining who wins the US presidential election in November. Photo: Bloomberg

Published: 4:05am, 27 Sep 2024Updated: 7:29am, 27 Sep 2024

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s vows to usher in a “manufacturing renaissance” in America have intensified as he seeks to differentiate himself from Democratic hopeful US Vice-President Kamala Harris ahead of US election day.

Standing before a ‘Made-in-USA’ banner at a campaign rally in Savannah, Georgia, on Tuesday, the former US president pledged to snatch “other countries’ jobs” and slap hefty tariffs on foreign-made goods to shield American industries.

Trump has also promised throughout his White House bid a crackdown on “illegal aliens” and expanding the president’s say in decisions made by the US Federal Reserve.

But a working paper released on Thursday by the Peterson Institute for International Economics warned of dire effects for the American economy, the world’s largest, if Trump’s plans were to materialise.

In particular, weaker economic growth, higher inflation and job losses would ensue, according to the Washington-based think tank, with some impact expected to be felt through 2040.

US polls show a close race between Vice-President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump. Photo: AP

As president, Trump imposed tariffs on more than US$300 billion worth of mainland imports, saying the move would cut America’s trade deficit with China while boosting US job growth. If re-elected, he has threatened to implement a 10 per cent blanket tax on all foreign goods and tariffs of up to 60 per cent on Chinese goods.