Andrew Hammond

Opinion | Deal to end Russia’s blockade of Ukraine grain must prevail – millions worldwide are counting on it

The fate of many of the world’s poorest rests on the safe passage of millions of tonnes of grain out of Ukraine, where it has been stuck since Russia’s invasion

Yet there are fears that even if exports resume, the damage to global food security has already been done, and a major crisis is looming

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A woman finishes unloading wheat from a truck at a grain storage facility in Ukraine’s southeastern Zaporizhia region on July 14. Photo: EPA-EFE

Andrew Hammond

Published: 1:30am, 23 Jul 2022Updated: 7:37am, 23 Jul 2022

Türkiye, the UN, Ukraine and Russia have reportedly reached a deal to open Black Sea shipping ports closed since Moscow’s invasion. However, a food crisis is still looming that will affect potentially hundreds of millions across the globe.

Welcome as the deal is, much damage has already been done in the almost 150 days since the conflict began. Russia’s invasion has shocked agricultural markets, including sunflower oil exports, of which 80 per cent of global supplies come from the Black Sea region, plus wheat, for which Russia and Ukraine account for more than a quarter of world exports.

To be sure, some Ukraine grain is being diverted through Europe by rail, road and river, but the amount is small. Other measures include expanding the use of a Romanian Black Sea port, more Danube cargo terminals, and cutting red tape for freight at the Polish border.

Since February, Ukraine has exported only a fraction of the 6 million tonnes a month of grain it did before the war. Typically, 90 per cent of wheat and other grains from Ukraine are shipped by sea.

02:20

Deal reached to end Russia’s blockade of Ukraine grain exports and ease global food crisis

Another outcome of the past few months is that 20 million tonnes of such grain is currently lying in stockpiles, and 60 million tonnes of harvest in the coming weeks faces a similar fate. Little wonder that Ukraine’s agriculture minister says there will be global wheat shortages for three seasons.