Opinion | A stronger, more confident China has little to fear from Trump 2.0

The possible return of Donald Trump to the Oval Office has caused considerable disconcert, even fear, in Western capitals from Brussels to Ottawa and also in Tokyo. Beijing, however, appears nonplussed. It has good reason to be.

To start with, the US presidential election will not substantially change America’s economic and trade policy towards China.

Former president Trump seems tougher on China than incumbent Joe Biden. Trump has suggested that the US should deprive China of its “most favoured nation” status, which World Trade Organization members accord each other. He has threatened a tariff of upwards of 60 per cent on all Chinese imports, from around 20 per cent now, and has vowed to decouple from China economically.

It pushes for improved market access for US service providers such as financial institutions, and tries to get more non-strategic US products like agricultural produce and Boeing planes into China. To help keep US inflation at bay, it also allows Chinese consumer goods into the US with few barriers, except tariffs.

At the same time, the Biden administration’s technological blockade on China is arguably the most restrictive embargo it has introduced on a country since the end of the second world war, when it went to war against Japan and Germany. A second Biden term would probably see the US take more extreme and radical economic and trade measures against China.