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Hong Kong electoral changes
CommentHong Kong
Mike Rowse
Mike Rowse

Opinion | What to expect from elections for Hong Kong’s reformed legislature

  • Understandably, Beijing lost patience with lawmakers’ antics that left Legco unable to function, but the pendulum on political reform has swung too far
  • Order will be restored in the short term, but killing hope for the future is not good for long-term stability

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Lawmaker Abraham Razack (bottom centre) is surrounded by other legislators during a meeting on the Fugitive Offenders Bill at the Legislative Council on May 11, 2019. Beijing lost patience with the shenanigans in Legco. Photo: Edmond So
Mike Rowse

A number of interesting questions arise when looking ahead to the Legislative Council elections in December. The answers will determine the stance of the different parties as they plan their participation.

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We need to start with a quick recap of what our legislature will look like after recent reforms. The number of seats will increase from 70 to 90. The Election Committee, newly expanded from 1,200 to 1,500, can elect 40 of its members to Legco. The number of functional constituency seats will be reduced from 35 to 30, with the five super seats eliminated.

The number of directly elected seats to be filled by universal suffrage will be reduced from 35 to 20; instead of five large constituencies each returning many members under the proportional representation system, there will be 10 constituencies each returning two members.

The Election Committee will comprise 982 elected members, 156 nominated ones and a further 362 ex officio members. Nominations for the first group closed earlier this month and the elections will take place in mid-September.
Given the structure and eligibility requirements of the Election Committee, it is safe to say the body will be overwhelmingly conservative. The 40 Legco members who emerge from it are likely to be of a similar disposition.

05:10

Hong Kong's revamped electoral system bolsters pro-Beijing influence in key decision-making bodies

Hong Kong's revamped electoral system bolsters pro-Beijing influence in key decision-making bodies

The elimination of the five most representative functional constituencies, plus other changes to the composition of various groups, is likely to reinforce the traditional conservative bias in this category of seats. It would not be surprising if the conservative camp won more than 20 of them.

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