Opinion | Domestic politics will take sting out of US-China tensions as 2024 presidential race heats up

This Labour Day weekend marks summer’s unofficial end for Americans and the shift into high gear for the 2024 US presidential race. With partisan loyalty high, a sharply divided electorate means a fierce and costly duel for a sliver of swing voters in battleground states – a likely replay of 2020 without the pandemic-crippled economy.

Being “tough on China” will again figure in campaign rhetoric. Clashes over Taiwan, trade, relations with Russia and the US military presence in Asia will inevitably play out, drawing candidates’ rebukes. House of Representatives committee hearings on China will fuel reporters’ questions. Promises to fend off China’s threats to US competitiveness will easily draw applause in stump speeches, since more than 80 per cent of Americans hold unfavourable views of China.

Nevertheless, US-China relations will not be the fault line between the candidates in 2024 that it was in 2020. Republican hopeful Donald Trump has said he will “tax China to build up America”. Incumbent US President Joe Biden will counter that he is far more clever, citing his prohibitions on both chip exports and defence-sensitive investments as anti-China tactics.

However, the contest is instead shaping up to be about domestic concerns. The focus will be on presidential power usurping constitutional limits to undermine democracy; accelerating or pushing back the conservative agenda after landmark decisions by the Supreme Court against reproductive rights and affirmative action; and technological threats from untrustworthy rivals.

Before detailing his stance on those issues, Biden must first address the disconnect between the successes of “Bidenomics” and Americans’ views of his presidency. The incumbent remains remarkably low in opinion polling despite full employment, falling inflation and signs that artificial intelligence could power an unprecedented multi-year boom. About half of Democrats do not want him to be the party’s nominee, a recent New York Times/Siena College poll shows.