Genevieve Donnellon-MayandZhang Hongzhou

The View | Rail link with Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan key to China raising Central Asia influence and skirting Russia sanctions

After decades of delays over logistical and geopolitical disagreements, a rail link between China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan is set to begin construction

With Russia no longer objecting to it, the way is clear for a project that will boost Beijing’s economic ties and diplomatic influence within Central Asia

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A China-Europe freight train leaves for Kazakhstan from Xian International Port in Shaanxi province on July 29, 2022. Sanctions against Russia have complicated China’s rail links with Central Asia and Europe, giving greater impetus to its efforts to establish an alternative route that runs through Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Photo: Xinhua

Genevieve Donnellon-MayandZhang Hongzhou

Published: 6:15am, 30 Aug 2023

Premier Li Qiang is expected to undertake an official visit to Kyrgyzstan in October. During the trip, he is expected to discuss the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project.

After decades of delay and amid concerns the railway might never be built because of conflicting interests, the three governments signed an agreement on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit last September. With significant progress achieved since then, construction of the project is expected to start within this year, not only reshaping Eurasian trade but also creating major regional economic and geopolitical impacts.

First proposed in the 1990s, various technical, political and geopolitical considerations, such as financing and an inability to agree on the track gauge and route, have held back the railway’s construction, partly because of Moscow’s geopolitical and economic concerns.

Geopolitically, Moscow had long worried that the project could upset the current balance of power in Central Asia, where growing Chinese investment is likely to leave the region more dependent on China. Economically, Russia’s regional Trans-Siberian Railway considered the proposed railway as direct competition. Russia also reaps economic benefits from the China-Europe Railway Express, which passes through Russia en route to Europe.

In recent years, apart from China’s repeated attempts to review the project, Kyrgyzstan has also shown great interest in reviving the project. In 2020, then Kyrgyz president Sooronbay Jeenbekov stressed the importance of railways for the country, with the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway the most strategically important.

Additionally, Kyrgyzstan sought to promote Russia as a partner for the track through a 3+1 format. Even so, little progress has been achieved since then.