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Opinion | How Thailand can draw closer to China despite US rivalry and geopolitical tensions

  • The Thai military should focus on regional peacekeeping with China, especially in Myanmar, while Thailand must remain a safe haven for investment
  • Bangkok should also promote people-to-people connections, including in tourism, and keep the local media free from foreign interference

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Illustration: Stephen Case

July 1 marked the 48th anniversary of the formalisation of Sino-Thai relations. Today, China is Thailand’s largest trading partner with US$135 billion of trade last year, about 18 per cent of Thailand’s total.

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Thai exports to China have also jumped, from just US$1.82 billion in 1995 to US$37.7 billion in 2021, a testament to China’s burgeoning middle class and Thailand’s growing competitiveness as a manufacturing and agricultural powerhouse.

With their cultural and interpersonal ties, a clear preference among Chinese households for holidaying in Thailand and joint venture successes from healthcare to cutting-edge start-ups and innovation, both countries have long enjoyed a synergy from the pooling of their capital, talent and knowledge.
The Belt and Road Initiative has yielded considerable success in advancing regional infrastructural development through Thailand – an effective Southeast Asian heartland connecting China with Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia and Malaysia via a sophisticated train and logistical network.

While receiving a Chinese delegation earlier this year, Pheu Thai Party leader Chonlanan Srikaew pledged to “drive more trade agreements, promote investment, mutual import-export, tourism as well as the exchange of technology”.

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Yet for Sino-Thai ties to meaningfully deepen, broaden and weather the coming decades, Beijing and Bangkok must address the elephant in the room: incipient geopolitical tensions largely stemming from the Sino-US rivalry.

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