Advertisement
Ukraine war
OpinionComment
Sameed Basha
Sameed Basha

Opinion | Ukraine war: fading support and internal divisions must push Nato to negotiating table

  • Nato must realise Ukraine is not in a position where it can liberate its entire territory and successfully join the alliance at the end of the war
  • Commitments of support to Kyiv must also come with an acknowledgement of Russia’s security interests

Reading Time:3 minutes
Why you can trust SCMP
27
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrives to attend the Nato summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 11. Turkey has used Sweden’s membership in Nato as a bargaining chip to support its own aspirations of being admitted to the European Union. Photo: EPA-EFE
Sameed Basha
The Nato summit in Lithuania is being held amid the backdrop of it being 500 days since Russia invaded Ukraine, which has caused the transatlantic alliance to increase the frequency of its summits. The alliance has convened three times since the start of the conflict, in contrast to the five times it had met in the decade before the conflict.
Advertisement

Despite frequent diplomatic discussions, Nato has yet to take a nuanced approach to resolving one of the most significant conflicts in Europe since World War II. While the meetings signal member states recognise the need for a solution, persistent deadlocks indicate a need for more progress.

Ukraine is undoubtedly the summit’s focus, with its defence needs high on the agenda. But what Kyiv values more than weapons is its admission into Nato, something that is an uncertain prospect despite pressure from President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Member states such as the United States, Hungary and Germany are at odds with including Ukraine into the alliance. Meanwhile, Turkey has also used Sweden’s membership in Nato as a bargaining chip to support its own aspirations of being admitted to the European Union. Such acts driven by the national interest run contrary to Nato’s security principles and present a divided front.

The matter of Ukraine’s security should now be considered within a post-war framework on what EU-Russian relations should be like, which is vital, as public support for the war outside Ukraine is increasingly in question.

Advertisement

Fewer than half of US respondents – 48 per cent – to an Associated Press poll in February said they supported providing weapons to Ukraine, down from 60 per cent in May 2022, while 29 per cent were opposed. Polling in Europe last December showed 50 per cent support for providing Ukraine with arms, down from 56 per cent that March, with support dipping to 48 per cent in Germany and 36 per cent in Italy.

The wreckage of a Ukrainian ambulance car, which activists say was attacked near Kharkiv by the Russian forces in the early stage of the war in Ukraine, is displayed in front of the German Bundestag, in Berlin, Germany, on July 5. Photo: EPA-EFE
The wreckage of a Ukrainian ambulance car, which activists say was attacked near Kharkiv by the Russian forces in the early stage of the war in Ukraine, is displayed in front of the German Bundestag, in Berlin, Germany, on July 5. Photo: EPA-EFE
Advertisement