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Ukraine war
OpinionComment
David Dodwell
David Dodwell

Inside Out | Cost of war: Ukraine’s reconstruction bill is huge, but the world can afford it

  • Even if Putin cannot be made to pay the estimated US$411 billion rebuilding cost, Ukrainians can be moderately confident the world will ensure it is covered
  • Importantly, this is a sober reminder of the grim costs of war and the absolute imperative to avoid it

Reading Time:3 minutes
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People sit in a shelter in Bakhmut, in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region, on January 19, after residents were left with no electricity, heating, water or gas. Photo: EPA-EFE
David Dodwell
As world leaders fly around the world discussing whether or how to bring Russia’s war on Ukraine to an end, a World Bank report has brought us abruptly down to earth. It estimates that it will cost at least US$411 billion to rebuild the country – over twice the size of Ukraine’s war-damaged economy, 12 times more than its reserves and, for perspective, roughly equivalent to Hong Kong’s entire gross domestic product.
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The Ukraine Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment report, a collaboration between the World Bank, European Union, United Nations and Ukraine government, is a sober reminder of the grim costs of war and the absolute imperative to avoid it.

Of Ukraine’s 44 million people, an estimated 13.5 million have been displaced across the country or forced to flee abroad. Almost 10,000 civilians are dead. Its GDP has crashed by more than 29 per cent and exports have fallen by a similar rate. Household incomes estimated at US$61.5 billion have been lost, with about 7.1 million people pushed into poverty.

The report is essential reading for anyone foolish enough to consider military “solutions” to conflicts or to disregard the provocations that give warmongers cause.

The US$411 billion figure is a sharp increase from its US$349 billion estimate last September, in part because of recent heavy damage to Ukraine’s energy sector, but the World Bank team has warned that reconstruction costs will keep rising while the war continues.
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So far, it estimates that rebuilding transport infrastructure will cost about US$92 billion, with US$68 billion needed for new housing and US$47 billion for the energy sector. Even the removal of “explosive hazards” – landmines – will cost over US$37 billion. The big question, for those in Ukraine able to see beyond the immediate war effort, is who will pay for all this.

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