Stephen Roach

Opinion | US, China and Russia are repeating the mistakes of major powers in 1914

Then, as now, global powers hyped up their own narratives instead of communicating, creating an environment in which any unexpected event might spark conflict

And, like today, people doubted that a large-scale war could break out in a globalised, interconnected world

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Ukrainian Svitlana Gynzhul walks in front of a damaged house in her village, devastated by shelling at the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in Luch, Mykolaiv region, Ukraine, on February 25. The world is simmering with conflict and resentment. All that’s missing to spark wider war is a trigger. Photo: Reuters

Stephen Roach

Published: 4:45pm, 28 Feb 2023

The Great War was triggered by the assassination of Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand in June 1914, which occurred against the backdrop of a long-simmering conflict between Europe’s major powers. This interplay between conflict escalation and a political spark has special resonance today.

With war raging in Ukraine and a cold-war mentality gripping the United States and China, there can be no mistaking the historical parallels. The world is simmering with conflict and resentment. All that is missing is a triggering event. Between Taiwan, the South China Sea, and Ukraine, there are plenty of possible sparks to worry about.

Taiwan is a leading candidate. Even if, like me, you do not accept the US view that President Xi Jinping has consciously shortened the timeline for reunification, recent actions by the US government may end up forcing his hand.

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi travelled to Taipei last August, and her successor, Kevin McCarthy, seems intent on doing the same. The newly established House select committee on China appears likely to send its own mission shortly.

Meanwhile, a just-completed visit to Taipei by a senior official from the Pentagon, in the aftermath of the December enactment of the US$10 billion Taiwan Enhanced Resilience Act, leaves little doubt about US military support for China’s so-called renegade province.

While the US squirms to defend the 0ne-China principle enshrined in the 1972 Shanghai Communique, there can no longer be any doubt about US political support for preserving Taiwan’s independent status. That is a red line for China – and a geopolitical flashpoint for everyone else.

Opinion | US, China and Russia are repeating the mistakes of major powers in 1914

Then, as now, global powers hyped up their own narratives instead of communicating, creating an environment in which any unexpected event might spark conflict And, like today, people doubted that a large-scale war could break out in a globalised, interconnected world

Then, as now, global powers hyped up their own narratives instead of communicating, creating an environment in which any unexpected event might spark conflict

And, like today, people doubted that a large-scale war could break out in a globalised, interconnected world