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US-China relations
OpinionComment
Sameed Basha
Sameed Basha

Opinion | Spy balloon fallout shows urgent need for guardrails in US-China relationship

  • The blame game and domestic politics on both sides are preventing dialogue at time when it is needed more than ever
  • When crisis strikes, diplomatic channels must remain open with confidence-building measures and proper guardrails designed to prevent a global catastrophe

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The remnants of a Chinese surveillance balloon drift above the Atlantic Ocean, just off the coast of South Carolina, on February 4. The incident has raised concerns about further deterioration in US-China relations and the need for diplomatic guardrails to keep events from spiralling out of control. Photo: AP
Sameed Basha
China’s surveillance balloon fiasco in the United States is a potent reminder of needing guardrails to manage the ongoing competition between the two countries. President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden’s summit in November hoped to quell tensions between the superpowers by increasing channels of communication and dialogue.
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However, the domestic response in both countries has exposed how internal dynamics in China and the US can affect their relationship during times of crisis. The ambiguity within China’s institutions and political structures has left Western experts speculating on who authorised the mission, drawing condemnation and criticism.

Meanwhile, the visibility of the balloon will become emblematic of the threat China poses to the US rules-based order, strengthening the arguments of hawks who demand rigid policies against China. This could cause the Biden administration to escalate tensions, especially in the lead-up to the 2024 US elections.
Unfortunately, this has come against an already downward trajectory in relations and a growing sense of US-China conflict. A leaked memo from four-star US Air Force General Mike Minihan warned officers to prepare for a clash with China as early as 2025.

Clearly, the idea of having guardrails has become more important. The onus should be on both countries to put forward institutionally driven de-escalatory measures to meet each other halfway.

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For the US, this means not creating a forward operating base in the Northern Territory of Australia to support operations from Guam and refraining from making groupings such as Aukus and the Quad, which are seen as being meant to provoke China. Meanwhile, China can play its part by availing itself of opportunities for dialogue and engaging with the US instead of refusing to communicate, giving further credibility to war hawks.
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