Genevieve Donnellon-May

Opinion | BRICS expanding to Saudi Arabia, Indonesia and beyond holds promise, but challenges remain

Middle and small powers in the developing world are increasingly seeking alliances to secure their interests amid a backdrop of great power competition

New members could stand to gain handsomely from balancing or playing BRICS and the West off each other, but hurdles must be cleared before expansion can happen

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President Xi Jinping (right) receives greetings from Riyadh Province Governor Prince Faisal bin Bandar Al Saud and other senior officials upon arriving in Riyadh on December 7, 2022. Saudi Arabia could be among a new wave of BRICS members as China pushes to expand the bloc, but internal issues and regional rivalries could complicate efforts to expand the group’s influence. Photo: Xinhua

Genevieve Donnellon-May

Published: 10:00pm, 8 Feb 2023Updated: 11:07pm, 8 Feb 2023

Following the decision by the BRICS countries to consider new members, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed that “more than a dozen” countries have expressed interest in joining the economic group comprising Brazil, China, India, Russia and South Africa.

Although the foreign minister did not name the interested countries, it may be noted that Algeria, Argentina, and Iran have applied to join BRICS. They are not the only potential new BRICS members as Afghanistan, Egypt, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are also interested in becoming members.

In a further demonstration of growing interest in joining BRICS, the finance ministers of a number of countries – Kazakhstan, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Senegal, Thailand and the United Arab Emirates – attended last year’s BRICS expansion dialogue.

Against a backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and systemic competition between the United States and China, great powers as well as middle and small powers are seeking alliances and securing strategic interests. As the potential BRICS expansion demonstrates, this is made more complex by great power competition. In this context, the expansion of BRICS has led to questions about its potential geoeconomic and geostrategic implications.

At present, the five members are home to almost 30 per cent of the world’s total land surface and 41 per cent of its population. They contribute 16 per cent to world trade and around 24 per cent to global GDP.

While BRICS members are not well-represented in the global financial system, their collective GDP could reach half of global GDP by 2030. With the potential inclusion of new countries, it is not unreasonable to imagine this will happen much quicker than expected.