Advertisement
North Korea
OpinionComment
Chan Young Bang
Chan Young Bang

Opinion | Kim Jong-un’s dream of a North Korean alliance with Russia and China will remain just that

  • Such an alliance is not the key to North Korea’s survival, when its threats and crises are internal
  • Crucially, both Moscow and Beijing are opposed to its nuclear tests, which destabilise the region. And China will never join such a disadvantageous alliance

Reading Time:4 minutes
Why you can trust SCMP
1
Illustration: Craig Stephens
Chan Young Bang
North Korea’s accelerated missile tests and vocal support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine signal a fundamental change in foreign policy. Pyongyang wants to move from being a buffer between the US and Chinese blocs to becoming a full member of an alliance with China and Russia.
Advertisement

Kim Jong-un calculates that North Korea would have a better chance of survival in such an alliance than in trading its nuclear programme for security guarantees, lifting of sanctions and economic development.

But such an alliance would neither provide security nor enhance survival for North Korea. There are four reasons.

First, the threats and crises faced by North Korea do not stem from military threats, but from internal contradictions, turmoil and malaise.

There are five internal contradictions of particular significance:

  • One is the inconsistency between the ruling ideology (Juche) and reality. North Korea’s paradigm of state development, allegedly a scientifically advanced and sublimated form of socialism, has resulted in a dire socio-economy.

  • Two, the small coalition system of leadership, which provides privilege and rewards in return for loyalty to the leader, has collapsed.

  • Three, to alleviate famine during the 1990s, the government turned over its means of production to private entities. This led to the proliferation of the shadow economy, which constitutes an estimated 70 per cent of gross domestic product. The state has lost control of the economy and the system breeds corruption, undermining the legitimacy of the “supreme leader”.

  • Four, owing to the breakdown of the state, the rationing system, which fosters loyalty and controls mobility, has eroded.

  • Five, the UN Security Council sanctions placed on North Korea in 2017 and its Covid-19 border shutdown have destroyed the economy. The value of merchandise exports to China decreased by around 90 per cent between then and 2021. Inflation and stagnation keep the government from raising enough revenue.

01:56

New US Space Force unit launched in South Korea to counter North’s nuclear and missile threats

New US Space Force unit launched in South Korea to counter North’s nuclear and missile threats
Advertisement