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US-China relations
OpinionComment
Christopher Nixon Cox
James Arnold
Christopher Nixon CoxandJames Arnold

Opinion | World awaits China’s decision on how to handle its Russian ‘grey rhino’

  • The chaos created by Russia’s recent geopolitical actions stands in sharp contrast to China’s nuanced, considered approach and puts Beijing’s goals at risk
  • Fifty years after Nixon’s visit to China reshaped the global order, the world again waits for Beijing to decide where its geopolitical interests lie

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Illustration: Stephen Case
Christopher Nixon CoxandJames Arnold
The day war broke out in Ukraine, we sat for dinner with the Chinese ambassador to the United States to celebrate the 50th anniversary of then-US president Richard Nixon’s historic journey for peace and the cultural legacies of the American and Chinese people.
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The coincidence borne by fate, or yuanfen, of the dinner celebrating the “week that changed the world” was apparent. The Shanghai Communique of 1972 made clear that the US and China would oppose efforts by the Soviet Union or any other major power to dominate Asia.

History might be rhyming. Ambassador Qin Gang told us: “The China-US relationship has come to another historical juncture. We are entering a new round of mutual exploration.” But are we really? That is certainly what China would like the US to believe to facilitate its next decade of strategic objectives with its superpower polar twin.
The China-Russia communique of February 4 was perhaps a move to reverse the Sino-Soviet split, but rereading the text shows there is little that cannot be undone should China accept that the fates are not with Russia. As Nixon said, “great nations act on the basis of interest, not sentiment”.

China’s rise has been inertial, dependent on the consistency of its political system, the growth and education of its population, its embrace of elements of capitalism and the insatiable economic demand of the US.

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Despite its resource wealth, Russia continues to experience declining living standards and therefore political instability under President Vladimir Putin because of its errant foreign policy. The Soviet Union did in large part win World War II and make technological leaps thanks to US aid, technology transfers and approved and unapproved Soviet spying on the US, yet Russia now has little to show for these efforts.

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