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Ukraine
OpinionComment
Richard Harris
Richard Harris

The View | Amid invasion and fifth wave, Russia and Hong Kong are feeling the wrath of unintended consequences

  • Emotion appears to have overtaken Putin’s reasoning, opening his country to unforeseen destructive effects, while Hong Kong struggles to deal with the consequences of its pandemic policies
  • For investors, the key defensive mechanism is diversification and unemotional risk assessment

Reading Time:3 minutes
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A burnt-out car sits in the street in Kharkiv, Ukraine, after shelling by Russian troops on March 1. Photo: DPA
Richard Harris

“Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The statesman who yields to war fever must realise that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events … Always remember: however sure that you are that you can easily win, there would not be a war if the other man did not think he also had a chance.”

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Winston Churchill – soldier, war leader and author of My Early Life: A Roving Commission – knew a thing or two about wars and bestowed his advice to future leaders in his books. Unfortunately, it seems that this one was not covered by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s book club.
If truth is the first victim of war, the second is battle plans that fail on first contact with the enemy. By ordering a full-scale invasion of a sovereign country within Europe, Putin has exposed himself to the law of unintended consequences. He is no longer master of policy but its slave.

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Ukraine invasion: Russian missiles strike Kharkiv; at least 10 killed and 35 injured

Ukraine invasion: Russian missiles strike Kharkiv; at least 10 killed and 35 injured
This is odd as Putin, who is normally clever, had his opponents right where he wanted them. He was ably playing the game of salami slicing in Ukraine, combining it with highly proficient information warfare and using the London courts to attack his opponents and stash money. In deploying half of his army to invade Ukraine – which is huge in area – he has swapped his upside for a future of downsides.

Even if, as seems possible, the Russians occupy and destroy the 1,500-year-old city of Kyiv, they could easily be tied up in a 15- to 20-year insurgency that will produce tens of thousands of maimed Russian soldiers and hundreds of thousands of civilian deaths. The Russians are less squeamish than the Americans about rules of engagement – not the finest of legacies.

It seems Putin has let his emotions take over. He has called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky – who is Jewish – a “neo-Nazi” even as Russian tanks crossed the border. Centralised decision-making and emotion create fertile ground for unintended consequences. Russia can only lose this very costly war of attrition – just ask the United States.
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Putin’s invasion has mobilised broad global support against Russian interests, primarily inspiring economic and trade sanctions. No small country likes to think they could be invaded next. Nato countries are on high alert, and even Germany has pledged to increase its defence spending.

Russian banks are banned from the Swift financial messaging system. Russian planes cannot fly over large areas of global airspace, and Russia’s central bank foreign reserves are frozen. The European Union is considering Ukraine for membership, which they would not have dreamt of doing before.
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