Minxin Pei

Opinion | How the US-China cold war could lead to more conflict, but also more peace

Competition with China will demand greater strategic discipline from the US, creating openings for the likes of Russia and Iran to exploit

At the same time, shifting US priorities could also force some nations to start fending for themselves, as seen in Israel’s improved relations with some Gulf states

Reading Time:3 minutes

Why you can trust SCMP

Ukrainian soldiers walk along a line of separation from pro-Russian rebels near Katerinivka, Donetsk region, Ukraine, on December 7. America’s increased focus on competition with China could create an opening for Russia to exploit in its dispute with Ukraine. Photo: AP

Minxin Pei

Published: 3:30am, 5 Jan 2022Updated: 4:41am, 5 Jan 2022

During the Cold War, Europe was America’s strategic priority. East Asia was largely a sideshow, even though the United States fought bloody wars in Korea and Vietnam while also providing security for Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.

But in the unfolding new cold war between the US and China, America’s strategic priorities have flipped. US security strategy is now dominated by the China threat, and East Asia has replaced Europe as the principal theatre of the world’s defining geopolitical contest. The security consequences of this shift in America’s focus are becoming increasingly visible.

Most notably, America’s adversaries are taking advantage of its preoccupation with China to test US resolve. Iran, for example, has hardened its position in the stalemated negotiations on reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the 2015 nuclear deal from which US president Donald Trump’s administration withdrew in 2018.

Iranian leaders appear to be betting that President Joe Biden will be reluctant to resort to military force and get bogged down in a new war in the Middle East when the US is planning for a potential conflict with China.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s current military threats against Ukraine are apparently based on similar calculations. Putin believes he now has a freer hand to restore Russia’s influence in its immediate neighbourhood because the US cannot afford to be distracted from its strategic focus on China.

02:45

Putin only understands ‘the language of guns’, says Ukrainian soldier at Russia-Ukraine border

The recent actions by Iran and Russia vividly illustrate America’s strategic dilemma. To increase the likelihood of a favourable outcome in its contest with China, the US must maintain its strategic discipline and steer clear of secondary conflicts that could divert its attention and resources. Biden’s abrupt withdrawal from Afghanistan last year underscores his administration’s determination in that regard.