Opinion | Electoral reform a time for Hong Kong’s democrats to reinvent themselves

Institutional change is often characterised by path dependence. However, the passage of major changes to the electoral system by the National People’s Congress on March 11 seems to have taken Hong Kong’s constitutional development away from its past trajectory.

The road map and timetable Beijing promulgated in December 2007 could have allowed Hongkongers to directly elect their chief executive in 2017, based on the nomination mechanism prescribed by the Basic Law. It flopped because of the 2014 “Occupy Central” showdown by the pan-democrats who failed to reach a compromise with Beijing officials.

The top-down changes now allow members of the Election Committee to be elected as legislators, with speculation that they could comprise at least one-third of an enlarged assembly. In future, all legislative candidates must also secure nominations from this committee, making it a kingmaker.

The district council “super seats” elected by universal suffrage, integral to the 2010 deal with the Democratic Party brokered by former chief executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen, are expected to be scrapped. A new qualification screening mechanism will ensure all candidates for public office meet the “patriot” requirement.

The revamp will greatly weaken the power of pan-democrats in the legislature. Before the en masse resignation last November, they held a critical minority of over one-third of the seats and could veto any government bills on constitutional change.