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North Korea
OpinionComment
Chan Young Bang
Chan Young Bang

Opinion | How Biden can offer Kim Jong-un a package for North Korean denuclearisation he can’t refuse

  • The pandemic, coupled with sanctions, has forced Kim into a dire situation, which offers a rare chance for a breakthrough
  • Biden must cooperate with other six-party talk members to craft a deal that speaks to the cost-benefit calculation of economic development in exchange for denuclearisation

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Illustration: Craig Stephens
Chan Young Bang

The Biden administration has a genuine opportunity to achieve a landmark foreign policy agreement and establish permanent peace and stability on the Korean peninsula – by negotiating for complete, verifiable and irreversible dismantlement of North Korea’s nuclear programme, within the framework of six-party talks with South Korea, China, Russia and Japan.

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Escalating sanctions, applied in 2017, and the coronavirus pandemic have compounded North Korea’s economic calamity and forced leader Kim Jong-un into a dire situation, which has opened a rare window for a breakthrough.

North Korea’s economic bottleneck has intensified: back in August, its 2020 growth rate was projected to be minus 8.5 per cent, the worst contraction on record. Since 2017, exports have plummeted around 90 per cent, and it has incurred trade deficits of more than US$2 billion annually, which has led to the crippling depletion of its foreign currency reserves.

The economy will contract even further, given North Korea’s inability to procure strategic industrial raw materials and the paralysis of government operations due to a lack of adequate internal revenue. Drought and natural disasters throughout 2019, plus an inefficient agricultural system, have culminated in a disastrous 780,000-tonne grain shortage, with daily food rations dropping to 300 grams per person.
Kim’s rare admission that the five-year economic plan has failed to achieve its goals “in almost all areas to a great extent”, on January 5, the first day of the Eighth Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea, underscores the alarming situation.

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North Korea: Kim Jong-un admits failures in economic plan as he kicks off party congress

North Korea: Kim Jong-un admits failures in economic plan as he kicks off party congress
Given the severe economic contraction, coupled with a food shortage and trade deficits, the current economic crisis is worse than during the “arduous march” of 1995-1998 when millions of people died of starvation.
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