Chan Young Bang

Opinion | Time for Kim Jong-un to embrace denuclearisation and open up North Korea economically

While North Korea’s leader possesses a vision for the future of his country, the lack of an exit strategy from his nuclear programme has thwarted peace talks

Embracing denuclearisation in exchange for security guarantees, normalised relations and development aid will open the path for North Korea’s economy to soar

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Chan Young Bang

Published: 3:45am, 3 Dec 2020Updated: 3:45am, 3 Dec 2020

Despite the perception that Kim Jong-un will never relinquish his nuclear weapons programme, analysis of the North Korean leader’s rationale reveals it to be untrue. He has an ardent aspiration to ensure the survival and enduring sovereignty of his country, and it is with this mindset that he approached the global community in repeated summit meetings.

However, peace talks consistently failed because, although Kim possesses a vision for the future of the country, he lacks a viable exit strategy from the nuclear weapons programme. Today, with the rapidly approaching inauguration of US President-elect Joe Biden – who has stated he will not conduct any meetings with Kim “absent preconditions” – North Korea’s time is running out.

Time and again, sitting President Donald Trump could not enunciate the “bright future” he so publicly promised the regime. What Kim needs from Biden to ensure a bright future for North Korea and lasting peace for the international community is the transformation of the country into a normalised, peaceful and prosperous member of the global community, coupled with spectacular economic growth.

Kim, as a rational decision-maker in a cost-benefit calculation, is sure to come to the conclusion that trading denuclearisation for sustained economic development with the United States, South Korea, China, Russia and Japan – the other members of the six-party talks – offers a distinctly better chance of survival.

However, a merely transactional agreement – dismantlement in exchange for economic modernisation – will not be enough to ensure the survival of the country. Kim must also transform the distorted North Korean system into one viable and capable of achieving rapid and sustained growth.

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North Korea’s current economic state is antithetical to the idea of economic modernisation. This backwardness is characterised by a complete inability to introduce macroeconomic policy because of the absence of economic and financial institutions, transparency, access to credit and legal business entities.