David Shambaugh

Opinion | China at 70 must take on its greatest challenge yet – political reform and opening up

The People’s Republic can be proud of its achievements to become a world power. But its turn in the past 10 years towards greater political and social controls takes it back to the repressive past, instead of a future in which it can realise its full potential

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David Shambaugh

Published: 3:00am, 1 Oct 2019Updated: 4:11am, 1 Oct 2019

Anniversaries should be occasions to celebrate accomplishments, reflect on the past, take stock of the present and look to the future. The People’s Republic of China’s 70th anniversary is such an occasion.

Certainly, there will be grand pageantry orchestrated with military precision in Tiananmen Square. A decade ago, on the occasion of the 60th anniversary, I sat in the reviewing stands beneath the Gate of Heavenly Peace and watched the weaponry and floats, soldiers and citizens, pass down the Avenue of Eternal Peace. It was an impressive display of national confidence, coming on the heels of the successful 2008 Olympic Games. In the evening, there were grand fireworks and more pageantry in the square.

This time portends an even more elaborate celebration. Militarily, the People’s Liberation Army is expected to unveil some new missiles, multiple rocket launchers, strategic bomber, lightweight tank, unmanned aerial and underwater vehicles and a wedge-shaped long-range hypersonic reconnaissance drone.

These new weapons systems will not only intrigue PLA watchers, but will also send powerful signals throughout Asia and to the United States of China’s continually increasing military reach and punch.

Yet, as it occurred to me 10 years ago while watching that display of firepower, isn’t such a martial demonstration contradictory and counterproductive to the peaceful and neighbourly soft-power image that Beijing constantly seeks to portray? Pew polls reveal that strong majorities across Asia already view China’s rise and growing military power negatively.

One wonders if this has occurred to the Chinese Communist Party’s propaganda department? For a nation seeking to tamp down the “China threat theory” and project a benign image abroad, is this the best way to go about it? The answer is likely to be that the parade is intended more to stoke domestic pride and nationalism than to reassure outsiders.