Opinion | China’s Communist Party is looking at the beginning of the end of one-party rule

On October 1, to mark the 70th anniversary of the People’s Republic, Chinese President Xi Jinping will deliver a speech that unreservedly celebrates the Communist Party’s record since 1949. But despite Xi’s apparent confidence and optimism, the party’s rank and file are increasingly concerned about the regime’s future prospects – with good reason.

In 2012, when Xi took the party reins, he promised that it would strive to deliver great successes in advance of two upcoming centennials marking the founding the party in 1921 and the republic in 1949. But a persistent economic slowdown and rising tensions with the United States are likely to sour party mood during the 2021 celebrations. And the one-party regime may not even survive until 2049.

While there is technically no time limit on dictatorship, the party is approaching the longevity frontier for one-party regimes. Mexico’s Institutional Revolutionary Party retained power for 71 years (1929-2000); the Communist Party of the Soviet Union ruled for 74 years (1917-1991); and Taiwan’s Kuomintang held on for 73 years (1927-1949 on the mainland and 1949-2000 in Taiwan). The North Korean regime, a Stalinist family dynasty that has ruled for 71 years, is China’s only contemporary competition.

But historical patterns are not the only reason for the party to be worried. The conditions that enabled the regime to recover from the self-inflicted disasters of Maoism and to prosper over the last four decades have largely been replaced by a less favourable – and in some senses, more hostile – environment.

The greatest threat to the party’s long-term survival lies in the unfolding cold war with the US. During most of the post-Mao era, China’s leaders kept a low profile on the international stage, painstakingly avoiding conflict while building strength at home. But by 2010, China had become an economic powerhouse, pursuing an increasingly muscular foreign policy. This drew the ire of the US, which began gradually to shift from a policy of engagement towards today’s confrontational approach.

With its superior military capabilities, technology, economic efficiency, and alliance networks (which remain robust, despite President Donald Trump’s destructive leadership), the US is far more likely to prevail in the Sino-American cold war than China. Though an American victory could be pyrrhic, it would more than likely seal the party’s fate.