Tiananmen’s lesson: if Hong Kong’s protesters want a fight, Beijing will certainly give it to them
- The leaders of China’s Communist Party have learned from both Tiananmen and the fall of the Soviet Union not to give in
- The mainland Chinese public also appears to have little sympathy for Hongkongers, which will free Beijing’s hand to act decisively
Vladimir Lenin once quipped that it was better to fall fighting in the streets than in some minister’s antechamber. Such a fate, he acknowledged, was even too cruel for a liberal. Elsewhere, he extolled the virtues of “learning” in the streets, with many failed attempts at revolution likely before success.
Lenin’s success can be questioned, but without a doubt Marxism-Leninism found successors in China, as Comrade Xi Jinping repeatedly reminds us. Suffice to say that China’s Communist Party still knows a thing or two about waging revolution, and suppressing it.
Seeing the bravado of Hong Kong protesters willing to shed blood for the cause, as international headlines trumpet, certainly elicits sympathy; but be forewarned. Most efforts are utterly catastrophic, both for the cause and those who advance it. Success requires the right moment, the right conditions and a host of other factors that are irreducible to 800 words.
Whatever Beijing’s intentions, two things are certain: it will neither cave in to demands nor allow the situation to escalate further.
