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Opinion | China must pick the least bad option to resolve Hong Kong crisis. A PLA crackdown is not it

  • Hongkongers would almost certainly treat Chinese government forces as invaders, and resistance would be fierce and casualties unavoidable
  • An exodus of expats and elites would follow, and the Hong Kong economy – still a bridge between China the rest of the world – would almost immediately collapse

Reading Time:4 minutes
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Chinese soldiers take part in a drill open to the public at the Stonecutters Island naval base in Hong Kong on June 30, to mark the 22nd anniversary of the handover of Hong Kong. Photo: AFP
The crisis in Hong Kong appears to be careening towards a devastating climax. With China’s government now using rhetoric reminiscent of what preceded the Tiananmen Square massacre in June 1989, Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protesters – and, indeed, its democracy – could well be in grave danger. 
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For more than two months, Hong Kong has been beset by protests. Triggered by a proposed law to allow the extradition of criminal suspects to mainland China, the demonstrations have since developed into broader calls to safeguard – or, perhaps more accurately, restore – the semi-autonomous territory’s democracy, including by strengthening state (especially police) accountability.
As the unrest drags on, the Chinese government’s patience is wearing thin – and its warnings are growing more ominous. The People’s Liberation Army garrison in Hong Kong is, in the words of its commander Chen Daoxiang, “determined to protect national sovereignty, security, stability, and the prosperity of Hong Kong”. To drive the point home, a promotional video showing Chinese military officers in action was released along with the statement.
Yang Guang, a spokesperson for the Chinese government’s Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office, has echoed this sentiment, warning the protesters – whom he calls “criminals” – not to “take restraint for weakness”. He then reiterated the government’s “firm resolve” to “safeguard the prosperity and stability of Hong Kong”.
Zhang Xiaoming, the director of the office, then took matters a step further, declaring that China’s government “has sufficient methods and enough powerful means to quell all sorts of likely unrest”. This came just two months after China’s defence minister argued that China’s stability since the Tiananmen crackdown proved that the government had made the “correct” choice.
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