Robert Lawrence Kuhn

Opinion | Is ZTE ban the start of a tech war between China and the US?

Robert Lawrence Kuhn says the dispute over ZTE and the related issues of trade and technology are worrying for the more fundamental problem they point to: misunderstanding on both sides of the other’s motives

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US experts have come to believe that China has become a competitor and may become an adversary. Illustration: Craig Stephens

Robert Lawrence Kuhn

Published: 6:00pm, 24 Apr 2018Updated: 9:12am, 23 May 2019

As someone who works for US-China understanding and roots for US-China partnerships, I’ve been concerned, but not worried, over what others have called “a looming trade war”. I’ve not worried because tariffs don’t work; they are blunt instruments in a globalised economy, penalising American companies and consumers as much as Chinese. Most American experts oppose tariffs, and President Donald Trump likes to make big deals after making big threats.

But I am now worried over what I will call “a looming tech war”, because the structural imperatives go deeper.

As everyone who follows China knows, the US Department of Commerce has imposed a denial of export privileges against ZTE, China’s second-largest telecommunications equipment manufacturer, thus prohibiting US companies from selling essential electronic components and software to ZTE, a crippling sanction.

China has responded resolutely, with targeted actions that seem selected from expert scenario planning, as well as with rhetoric, both high indignation and nationalistic bravado.

From China’s perspective, according to its Ministry of Commerce, “If the United States attempts to curb China's development ... it miscalculates. The action targets China; however, it will ultimately undermine the US itself,” affecting tens of thousands of jobs and hundreds of related US enterprises.