What a potential successor’s fate says about Xi Jinping’s ambitions

Steve Tsang says placing Sun Zhengcai under investigation may signal the Chinese leader is strengthening his hand in the lead-up to the 19th party congress and beyond. Is Xi positioning to stay in power in 2022?

Reading Time:4 minutes

The official reasons for Sun Zhengcai’s downfall will be interesting and potentially significant. The top leadership’s choice of narrative will reveal the message it prefers to project to the wider party and the country. Illustration: Ingo Fast

Published: 5:30pm, 19 Jul 2017Updated: 7:43pm, 19 Jul 2017

A thick fog of politics has engulfed Beijing, and it will not lift until October or early November, when the 19th Congress of the Communist Party has concluded. But occasional events and patterns from the past give us scope to peep through gaps in the murk, and identify some pointers of what to expect at the 19th congress.

The placing under investigation of Sun Zhengcai (孫政才), a Politburo member and Chongqing (重慶) party secretary, is one such occasion. This is a landmark development, as only three other serving Politburo members – the late Chen Xitong (陳希同) in 1995, Chen Liangyu ( 陳良宇 ) in 2006 and Bo Xilai ( 薄熙來 ) in 2012 – have fallen from grace since 1990, and Sun was previously a rising star.

What will happen to Sun is not yet known. But he could not have been put under investigation without President Xi Jinping ( 習近平 ) approving it or, more likely, ordering it. Unless Sun can persuade Xi that he will now cooperate fully and make himself exceedingly useful, he is – politically speaking – already a dead man walking.

Sun will almost certainly be charged, most likely for violating party discipline or corruption.

The official reasons for his downfall will be interesting and potentially significant. The top leadership’s choice of narrative will reveal the message it prefers to project to the wider party and the country.

A handcuffed Bo Xilai awaits sentencing in Jinan, Shandong province, in September 2013. Bo was convicted on charges of taking bribes, embezzlement and abuse of power, and sentenced to life in prison. Photo: AP/Jinan Intermediate People’s Court