Trump’s rise leaves China ideologically safe but facing graver security risks

Minxin Pei says while Beijing may be relieved that Donald Trump’s arrival marks the demise of Western liberal democracy, his fulminations over economic and territorial issues pose acute dangers

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Donald Trump’s ascent to the White House may usher in a new cold war, pitting the US against President Xi Jinping’s China. Photo: EPA

Published: 7:00am, 12 Feb 2017Updated: 8:38pm, 12 Feb 2017

The cold war ended in December 1991, when the Soviet Union disintegrated. The post-cold-war era ended in November 2016, when Donald Trump won the US presidency.

It is impossible to predict all of what the Trump era will bring. But some consequences are apparent: his presidency has already upended the key assumptions underpinning China’s post-cold-war grand strategy.

The first assumption is ideological. The ostensible triumph of Western liberal democracy in 1989 imbued that system with a kind of dominance. It was assumed to pose an existential threat to the Chinese Communist Party.

Then US president Barack Obama arrives in Berlin on November 16 to pay a farewell visit to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, widely seen as the new standard-bearer of liberal democracy since the election of Donald Trump. Photo: AFP

In the Trump era, we can’t rule out war between China and the US, whether over trade or security

In the economic realm, China expected continued Western leadership on globalisation. So it developed close commercial ties with the West to support growth and development, strengthening support for the party at home and bolstering influence abroad. On national security, China assumed the US did not pose a threat.

All in all, China’s leaders had come to terms with the dual nature of America’s hedging strategy, whereby the US engaged with China economically and diplomatically, while maintaining a robust security posture. And they had developed a strategy of their own that aimed to make the most of this relatively peaceful operating environment to pursue their main objective: rapid economic development. Now, however, that operating environment has changed. With Trump in the White House, China’s grand strategy will have to be redrafted according to a new set of assumptions.