Opinion | How China can best counter the US-Japan-South Korea alliance

If Beijing wants to effectively counter the US alliance with Japan and South Korea, and secure China’s status as a pre-eminent power on a par with the United States, it must first understand the four main factors that enabled the US to forge the trilateral alliance.

First, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has catalysed geopolitical polarisation, dividing the world and invoking acute military competition. China’s announcement of its “no limits” friendship with Russia just before the start of the conflict, and the Sino-Russian military exercises and strengthened security cooperation since then, serve as a catalyst for the US to develop its trilateral alliance in Asia.

Second, as a result of the geopolitical polarisation, the US has taken the initiative to promote a rules-based international order among liberal democracies, with the aim of containing China.

Third, North Korea’s renewed threat of armed provocation has triggered greater security collaboration between the US, South Korea and Japan. Faced with a common and terrible military threat, Japan and South Korea are setting aside their historical antagonism and reaching for strategic cooperation.

Fourth, Beijing’s assertive policy towards Taiwan and in the rest of the East China Sea has heightened tensions and altered the threat perceptions of South Korea and Japan.