As an unpredictable nuclear power thrashes out a succession strategy for life after Kim Jong-il, the international community grows nervous. But the United States and its allies have a rare opportunity to present North Korea with an alternative to the self-destructive status quo.
How the formation of a new regime will play out is a matter of wild speculation. The political system allows tremendous scope for a few individuals holding strategic positions in the Worker's Party of Korea and the National Defence Commission to take decisions that have major ramifications. Whether Kim's anointed successor, his youngest son Kim Jong-un, will be able to assert his authority, and for how long, remains to be seen.
There is no guarantee that the man Kim Jong-il appointed to safeguard a smooth succession for his son will do as Kim had intended. Jang Song-thaek, deputy head of the National Defence Commission, the highest organ of power, may be Kim Jong-il's brother-in-law and the chosen 'regent', but he is now in a position to play his own game.
Dynastic succession at a time when the country has long suffered great privations is not popular. Whether Kim Jong-un will be able to consolidate his leadership depends in part on how he manages relations with the other major power holders.
The US can do nothing to shape the actions of young Kim but there is considerable scope for it to influence internal debates among the leaders in Pyongyang.
Once North Korea has agreed on immediate arrangements for the formal succession, it has two clear-cut options in deciding the country's future direction. Status quo of a kind must be the default option. However, it is unlikely to be sustainable unless Kim Jong-un can secure the loyalty of powerful men several decades older in a culture that still reveres age, seniority and experience. He may also need an exceptionally mild winter and a very supportive China to avoid worsening famine.
The obvious alternative is for North Korea to follow China's path and introduce reforms to rejuvenate the economy without placing the party's monopoly of power at risk. Beijing will be on hand to help, since it has long been its policy to encourage North Korea to adopt its development model.
