Since the recent Legislative Council election is now history, we should look to the future to see whether the road for Hong Kong's democratic process looks smooth or rocky. There are many problems on the horizon. They arise largely due to the broad support for democratisation expressed by the people of Hong Kong and the unsure attitude towards that process on the mainland.
Despite predictions that support in the Legco poll for the pan-democrats would fall to under 50 per cent, the final vote for the camp was almost 60 per cent, demonstrating that the majority of Hongkongers want universal suffrage for the chief executive election. With 23 pan-democrats in the legislature, they can veto any political reform package Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen proposes for the 2012 election.
So Mr Tsang faces a major challenge: in his election campaign last year, he promised to solve the issue of universal suffrage for the chief executive poll. He cannot put off the issue until after 2012, when he leaves office. Second, since any proposal is vulnerable to a veto by Legco, it must be sincere. So what reforms would Hongkongers accept?
Expanding the Election Committee from 800 to 1,200 or 1,600 members, and turning it into a Nominating Committee that vets which candidates can run for office, would be one solution. Thereafter, candidates who pass the threshold would participate in a competitive election.
The share of votes a candidate would need from the Nominating Committee to move into the public election should not be too restrictive. Otherwise, Mr Tsang will appear to be trying to prevent any democrat from running for the position.
Discussions about political reform in Hong Kong last year suggested that the proportion of votes needed to satisfy the Nominating Committee would be between 10 per cent and 25 per cent. But a 25 per cent threshold, or allowing National People's Congress delegates to veto candidates, would smack of indirect authoritarianism and spark serious protests.
However, a modest threshold, such as 10 per cent, would allow a candidate from the Civic Party, for example, to compete. Could the mainland live with that? Some officials in Guangdong province find the Civic Party unacceptable. Trained as lawyers in England, its members are seen as a front for British interests in Hong Kong.
